Week 9 of the NFL season wraps up Monday night with the New Orleans Saints hosting the Baltimore Ravens (-3, 45) at Caesars Superdome (ESPN, 8:15 ET).
After an exciting Sunday of action, we have one more opportunity to wager on professional football. So which plays do our analysts like the most?
Betting analyst Joe Fortenbaugh, fantasy and sports betting analyst André Snellings, plus Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz provide their top plays.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Baltimore Ravens (-2, 47) at New Orleans Saints
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Caesars Superdome
The Ravens enter Monday night’s matchup against the Saints as only 2-point favorites. Do you like the Ravens to keep their NFC South streak rolling or can the Saints pull off the upset?
Schatz: I’ll take the Ravens and give the two points. Baltimore is still ranked fourth in the league in DVOA, including No. 2 on offense and No. 1 on special teams. Of course, you have to discount their offense a bit with both Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman out (although Bateman hasn’t played a big role for weeks), but you also need to consider the New Orleans defense without cornerback Marshon Lattimore. As I’ve noted multiple times in this space, Baltimore’s poor performance in the fourth quarter early in the year is not an indication that we should expect fourth-quarter collapses all season long. The Ravens are the better team and should pull this out, even if the Saints get frisky.
Cash out your parlay too early? Get burned on a last-second play? Come commiserate with Jason Fitz and his bad beats of the week.
Lamar Jackson has averaged 69.1 rushing yards per game and currently leads the league in yards per carry (7.4). The Saints’ defense has also had some success against mobile quarterbacks, limiting them to just 136 yards and two touchdowns on 31 attempts. Jackson’s rushing yard prop is currently 62.5 and he is +145 to score a touchdown. What are your thoughts?
Schatz: I like the under on the Jackson rushing prop, but would avoid the TD prop. We currently have Jackson projected with just 0.28 rushing touchdowns, closer to a line of +250. Beyond that, the Saints rank 31st in pass-rush win rate, suggesting there will be less pressure on Jackson to get out of the pocket and scramble.
For the Saints, one of the lone bright spots this season has been the resurgence of Alvin Kamara. New Orleans is one of the best rushing teams in the league (fourth in rushing yards), while Baltimore has one of the best run defenses and just added linebacker Roquan Smith at the trade deadline. Do you like Kamara to go over his rushing prop (60.5 yards) on Monday night?
Snellings: I like Kamara to go over 97 total yards, but I’m agnostic on his rushing prop. Kamara has always been best when being used as a dual threat, and he’s continued that during his resurgence. Over his past four outings, he has averaged 78.3 rushing yards and 67.0 receiving yards for 145.3 yards/game total, going over 100 yards in all four games. He’s had more receiving yards than rushing yards in two straight games, making total yards the safer play than simply counting on rushing alone.
What is your best bet for Monday night’s game?
Fortenbaugh: I’m going with Baltimore -0.5 (-105) in the first half. The Ravens rank fifth in the NFL in opponent first-half points per game (8.8) and just added a star linebacker (Smith) in a trade with Chicago. Through eight weeks, Baltimore also boasts a +4.7 first-half point differential, while the Saints clock in at -2.3. Plus, in his 57 career regular-season starts, Jackson is 36-19-2 ATS in the first half.
Schatz: I’ll take Taysom Hill as the first TD scorer (+700). We know the Saints like to switch it up with Hill near the goal line, and the Ravens rank only 25th in run defense DVOA this season. This prop probably doesn’t hit, but +700 is good value on it.
Snellings: I’m also going to go with Hill, but as an “anytime” touchdown (+155). Hill has scored six times in seven games, with his most recent coming on a reception after his first five were on the ground. He didn’t score any touchdowns in Week 8 — despite a season-high 10 carries and 11 touches — in large part because Kamara scored three times. It feels like Hill is due.
Source: www.espn.com