EAGAN, Minn. — The Minnesota Vikings are all-in — with their “competitive rebuild,” that is.
The acquisition of tight end T.J. Hockenson from the Detroit Lions will assuredly elevate production from the position during the second half of this season and boost their chances of a deep playoff run. But his arrival also meshes with the style of long-term roster building general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has emphasized since taking the job 10 months ago.
“Living in today and tomorrow,” Adofo-Mensah said this week.
The Vikings are attempting a delicate balancing act this season, hoping to wring out the remaining upside of a veteran roster while beginning the process of overhauling it. (Adofo-Mensah has referred to it as a “competitive rebuild.”) They’ve managed a 6-1 start despite one of the least productive tight end groups in the NFL, and the player they had the most hope for — Irv Smith Jr. — went on injured reserve Tuesday because of a left ankle injury.
Smith is eligible for free agency after this season, but Hockenson is under contract, won’t turn 26 until next summer and is as talented as anyone the Vikings might reasonably target in free agency or the 2023 draft.
Adofo-Mensah assumed some risk in the deal, most notably the big number it could take to get Hockenson signed to a contract extension before his current deal expires after next season. But that scenario would be classified as a “good problem,” because it will mean that Hockenson fulfilled coach Kevin O’Connell’s vision for the key role of a tight end in his scheme.
The Vikings made a deadline trade that will boost them over the next two months, but it’s a mistake to view it solely in a stopgap way. Let’s dive further into that idea, along with a few other revelations it prompted about a franchise that finds itself in a decidedly unique position as the 2022 season approaches its midpoint.
Hockenson is a long-term upgrade: Both O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah said they remain big supporters of Smith and hope to see him back on the field this season. Adofo-Mensah also implied that the duration of Smith’s likely absence — eight to 10 weeks, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter — prompted a final push to get the Hockenson deal done. But the Vikings had a significant need here regardless of Smith’s health.
They had tapped Smith for a primary role despite his absence for the entire 2021 season (knee) and most of training camp this summer (thumb), following Adofo-Mensah’s philosophy of making deep evaluations of incumbent players before seeking additions elsewhere.
“The thing that you want to do best when building,” he said, “is to really understand what you have in your [locker room].”
Smith ended up splitting time with veteran blocker Johnny Mundt, and while Adofo-Mensah said Smith “was really starting to come on,” the numbers are clear.
Though seven games, Vikings tight ends ranked last in the league with an average of 7.3 yards per reception. Quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has loved throwing to tight ends during his career, ranks No. 30 in the NFL in QBR when throwing their way (38) this season.
Hockenson, on the other hand, entered this season as the NFL’s seventh-best tight end, according to an ESPN survey of coaches and front office executives. He leads all tight ends with an average of 15.2 yards per catch this season. Almost half of those yards have come after the catch, an illustration of his ability to extend plays.
“I do think there’s a lot of potential for the tight ends in this offense,” Cousins said, “and we’ll have to continue to prove that in the weeks ahead.”
The Vikings recognize their unique position: There is no obvious trade-deadline strategy for a team trying to remain competitive while turning over its roster. Should it maximize its window or avoid mortgaging future assets? The Vikings’ assessment, however, comes amid a stark power imbalance between the NFL’s two conferences.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ranks the Vikings as the No. 14 team in a league where 14 teams receive playoff berths.
But perched atop a weak NFC North by four games in the loss column, the Vikings are near-locks to make the playoffs, per FPI (96.2%). And with most of the league’s power centralized in the AFC, FPI gives the Vikings the league’s sixth-best chance to reach the Super Bowl (8.0%).
Adofo-Mensah said he was “considering a lot of different things” when finalizing the Hockenson trade. Surely those odds were among them.
“A team is a very delicate chemistry,” he said, “and you want to make sure you’re not over-tweaking or overdoing anything. We’re excited about what we have and the group that we have, so we try be really judicious with our opportunities and this just happened to be one of them.”
Cousins is among many veterans in the locker room who have never been on a 6-1 team, and he’s eager to see where the Vikings’ road will lead. In his assessment, however, acquiring Hockenson was not making a move “just to make a move.”
“You make one that you feel actually is going to make a meaningful difference,” Cousins said, “and I do feel — it’s early right now — but I do feel that it was a good fit, and that he can really help us and he can fit well with what we’re trying to do as an offense and at his position.”
Adofo-Mensah is revealing his approach: A relative unknown in league decision-making circles, Adofo-Mensah is continuing to demonstrate a mix of old and new thinking in running the Vikings’ football operations.
On the one hand, like many general managers in similar situations, Adofo-Mensah did not insist on getting Hockenson signed to a long-term contract before agreeing to the trade. That shifted leverage to Hockenson. If he plays well, Hockenson could earn more than $20 million over the next two seasons without signing a new deal. His cap and salary jump to $9.4 million in 2023, the fifth and final year of his rookie contract. A franchise tag in 2024 is likely to be at least $12 million.
Those numbers would result from a best-case scenario on the field. But they are relevant because the Vikings must prepare for a precedent-setting extension for receiver Justin Jefferson, who will be eligible for a new deal after this season. They also have Cousins on the books for at least one more season at $36.3 million in cap space.
Adofo-Mensah, however, crafted a compensation package via an exchange of draft picks with the Detroit Lions that hardly represents a mortgage of the future. In essence, the Vikings moved one of their 2023 draft picks down from the second round to the fourth, and one of their 2024 draft picks from the third round to either the fourth or fifth, based on whether they make the playoffs this season.
It was the second significant trade Adofo-Mensah has made with the Lions, with whom he also swapped first-round picks during the 2022 draft. Both he and Lions general manager Brad Holmes have proved unencumbered by conventional wisdom that discourages teams from making deals within their own division.
“I have different challenges that I face and this organization faces in the future with contracts and positions and different things in the draft,” Adofo-Mensah said, “so you try to cultivate and create a trade that really works for your needs and hopefully that works for [the Lions’] needs and this is one of those times that things came to fruition.”
Source: www.espn.com