Cooper Rush, Patrick Mahomes facing underdog role

The two biggest games of Week 6 feature the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in underdog roles against the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles. Patrick Mahomes and Cooper Rush are a combined 11-0-1 ATS in their careers as underdogs.

Mahomes is a home underdog for the first time in his career. He had been favored in his first 41 home starts, including the playoffs, the longest streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era. Mahomes is 6-2 outright and 7-0-1 ATS in his career as an underdog. The only time his team didn’t cover, his team scored 51 points in a 3-point loss (pushed vs. the Los Angeles Rams).

Meanwhile, Rush is 5-0 outright and ATS in his career. He is the sixth quarterback in the Super Bowl era to win and cover his first five starts, and he is the first to do so despite being an underdog in at least four of his first five starts. Overall, Dallas is a league-best 17-5 ATS since the start of last season, including 8-0 ATS in division games. Overall, underdogs have continued to dominate this season, going 45-30-3 ATS (.600), the best percentage for either favorites or underdogs through five weeks since 2010. That includes the Atlanta Falcons going 5-0 ATS this season, all as an underdog. The Falcons are the only undefeated team against the spread.

The Green Bay Packers look to bounce back after suffering the largest upset loss of the season (-9) last week in London against the New York Giants. Under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 10-0 outright and ATS following a loss. Overall, Green Bay has won and covered 12 straight games following a loss, the longest streak by any team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger.

There are also two historic total streaks on the line. Both the Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts have gone under the total in 10 straight games (including playoffs for Cincinnati). The longest streak by any team in the past 35 seasons including playoffs is 11 straight.

play

Doug Kezirian previews why the Bills vs. Chiefs game may not live up to last year’s playoff matchup.

Season Notes

• Underdogs: 45-30-3 ATS this season

• Unders: 46-33-1 this season

• Best teams ATS: Atlanta (5-0), Dallas (4-1), New York Giants (4-1), Los Angeles Chargers (4-1)

• Worst teams ATS: Los Angeles Rams (1-4), Washington (1-4), Denver (1-4), Minnesota (1-4), Carolina (1-4)

• Best over teams: Detroit (4-1), Cleveland (4-1)

• Best under teams: Indianapolis (0-5), Cincinnati (0-5)

• Washington is 0-4 ATS in its past four games after covering in Week 1. Three straight Washington games have gone under the total.

• Thursday night games with totals in the 30s are 18-7-2 to the under since 2000.

• Road teams are 29-19 ATS on Thursday Night Football games in the past four seasons.

• Washington games have already closed pick ’em twice this season. No team has had three games close pick ’em in a single season since 1990 Atlanta, and no team in the Super Bowl era has had three of its first six games close pick ’em.

• Unders in prime-time games are 11-5 this season.

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 ET

• Atlanta is 5-0 ATS, the only team to cover every game this season. Only two teams in the past decade have started 6-0 or better ATS (2021 Dallas, 2018 Kansas City). Atlanta has been an underdog in all five games entering this week.

• Unders are 10-2 in San Francisco’s past 12 games, including playoffs.

• Bill Belichick is 8-2 outright and 7-3 ATS against Cleveland. This is the first time Belichick has ever been an underdog against Cleveland.

• Cleveland games are 4-1 to the over this season, including 3-0 at home.

• Bill Belichick is 52-28-1 ATS as an underdog as New England’s coach (33-13-1 ATS with Tom Brady, 19-15 ATS without him).

• Kevin Stefanski is 8-16 ATS as a favorite, including 4-13 ATS as a favorite of at least three points.

New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-7), Sunday at 1 ET

• Green Bay is 10-0 outright and ATS after a loss under Matt LaFleur. Green Bay has won and covered 12 straight games following a loss, which is the longest streak in the Super Bowl era of teams winning and covering following a loss.

• Green Bay is 17-9 ATS as a home favorite under Matt LaFleur.

• Zach Wilson is 3-7 ATS as an underdog of at least 3.5 points (1-4 ATS on road).

• Thirteen of New York’s past 19 games have gone over the total.

• Teams coming back from London without a week off are 3-4 ATS. Opponents’ team totals are 6-1 to the over in those games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5), Sunday at 1 ET

• Indianapolis is 0-3 ATS this season as a favorite and 0-5 ATS in its past five games as a favorite (0-4-1 SU).

• Indianapolis has gone under the total in 10 straight games, one shy of the longest streak in the past 35 seasons. Cincinnati has also gone under in 10 straight games, including playoffs.

• Jacksonville is 13-1-1 ATS against Indianapolis since 2015 with six straight covers.

• Trevor Lawrence is 7-15 ATS in his career (3-8 ATS on road).

• Unders in division games are 20-8 this season.

• Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in its past four games. It has won three straight games outright without covering. The last team to win three straight games while losing ATS in each game was 2020 Kansas City (five straight).

• Miami has won four straight games outright as a home underdog, including 1-0 this season when they beat Buffalo as four-point home underdog.

• Tua Tagovailoa is 15-9-1 ATS in his career. Teddy Bridgewater is 42-22 ATS in his career, including 24-8 ATS as an underdog.

• Miami is 22-10-1 ATS in its past 33 games as an underdog.

• Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its past six road games (0-2 ATS this season).

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 ET

• Cincinnati has gone under the total in 10 straight games including playoffs, one shy of the longest streak in the past 35 seasons. Indianapolis has also gone under in 10 straight games.

• New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its past four games as a home underdog (excluding London game). All four games went under.

Baltimore Ravens (-5) at New York Giants, Sunday at 1 ET

• New York is 4-1 ATS this season, including 3-0 ATS as an underdog.

• Lamar Jackson is 17-7-2 ATS on the road in his career.

• Daniel Jones has won four straight starts in the home underdog role. All four games went under. Unders are 8-0-1 in Jones’ past nine starts as a home underdog.

• Teams coming back from London without a week off are 3-4 ATS. Opponents’ team totals are 6-1 to the over in those games.

• Pittsburgh (+8) is in its largest home underdog role since 1989 when Pittsburgh upset Minnesota as an 8.5-point home underdog.

• Mike Tomlin is 14-4-2 ATS as a home underdog, including playoffs (6-0-2 ATS past five seasons).

• Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS in its past three games. Tom Brady has failed to cover four straight games only twice in his career (nine straight in 2007-09, including playoffs, five straight in 2002).

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-11), Sunday at 4:05 ET

• Over the past 10 seasons, teams to replace their coach in September/October are 5-1 outright and ATS in their first game with a new coach. Since 2015, those teams are 5-0 outright (4-1 ATS), and since 2020, they are 3-0 outright and ATS.

• Carolina is 3-16 outright and ATS in its past 19 games.

• Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS this season (0-3 ATS at home). Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games including playoffs, with unders going 6-1 (4-1 this season).

• Over the past three seasons, Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite (1-3 ATS with Matthew Stafford).

• Carolina was 0-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog last season.

• Arizona is 1-6 outright and ATS in its past seven games as a favorite with four straight losses. This is its first game as a favorite this season.

• Arizona is 10-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season (2-1 ATS as road favorite).

• Pete Carroll is 18-7 ATS as a home underdog with Seattle (14-11 outright) including playoffs. He is 50-33-2 ATS overall as an underdog with Seattle including playoffs

• Arizona is 6-1 ATS and 5-2 outright in the past seven meetings in Seattle.

• Three straight Seattle games have gone over the total. Three straight Arizona games have gone under the total.

• Unders in division games are 20-8 this season.

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 4:25 ET

• Patrick Mahomes has never been a home underdog. He is 6-2 outright and 7-0-1 ATS as an underdog. In the only two losses, his teams scored 40 and 51 points (his team scored 51 points against the Los Angeles Rams in his one ATS push). Mahomes has been favored in his first 41 career home games including playoffs, the longest streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era. Mahomes is 9-2-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.

• Mahomes is 3-1 outright and ATS against Josh Allen including playoffs (overs are 3-1).

• Games with totals of at least 48.5 are 12-5-1 to the under this season.

• Josh Allen is 20-10-2 ATS on the road.

• Unders are 4-1 in Buffalo games this season (3-0 on road).

• Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in its past five conference games (0-3 this season) and 5-14 ATS in its past 19 conference games.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5), Sunday at 8:20 ET

• Cooper Rush is the sixth quarterback to debut in the Super Bowl era to begin his career 5-0 both outright and ATS. He is the first to do it despite being an underdog in four of his first five starts. With another win, he would tie Patrick Mahomes, Kurt Warner and Mike Kruczek for the second-longest ATS/SU streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era. The longest was eight straight by Ben Roethlisberger.

• Since the start of last season, Dallas is a league-best 17-5 ATS overall, including 14-2 ATS in conference games, 10-1 ATS on the road and 8-0 ATS in division games. One more cover would tie the longest divisional cover streak by an NFC East team (1997-98 New York).

• Jalen Hurts is 4-0-1 ATS as a home favorite (2-5 ATS as road favorite).

• Dallas has covered three straight meetings.

• Unders in division games are 20-8 this season. Unders in prime-time games are 11-5.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-5), Monday at 8:15 ET (ESPN)

• Denver is 0-5 ATS in its past five road games.

• Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS this season, while Denver is 1-4 ATS. Unders in Denver games are 4-1, while three straight Los Angeles games have gone over.

• Unders in division games are 20-8 this season. Unders in prime-time games are 11-5 this season. Over the past four seasons, unders are 27-18-1 in Monday games with totals below 50.

Source: www.espn.com