Week 5 betting notes: Steelers facing historic spread

After the first four weeks featured a total of nine games with at least a touchdown spread, Week 5 currently features six such games. The largest spread of the season is in Buffalo as the Bills are 14-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh has not been that large of an underdog since 1969. The Steelers are the only team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to never be a 14-point underdog.

The second-biggest underdogs of the week are the Atlanta Falcons. Through four weeks, the Falcons are the only team unbeaten against the spread. However, the largest cover margin belongs to the Jacksonville Jaguars. This week, the Jaguars are in their largest favorite role since 2019. They are laying 7 points to the Houston Texans despite losing eight straight head-to-head meetings.

For the first time ever, two teams with winning records square off in London, but the spread implies a mismatch. The Green Bay Packers are an 8-point favorite against the New York Giants. Over the last 15 seasons, teams favored by at least 7 points in international games are 7-0 ATS (6-0 ATS in London).

Season results

• Underdogs: 8-7-1 ATS last week (35-25-3 ATS this season, .583)

• Unders: 8-8 last week (37-26-1 this season, .587)

• Atlanta: 4-0 ATS

• Detroit: 4-0 to the over

• Nine straight Indianapolis games have gone under the total, including all four this season.

• Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS and 5-2 outright in its past seven games as an underdog (1-0 outright this season).

• Indianapolis is 16-10-1 ATS after a loss under Frank Reich.

• Denver is 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite and 7-12 ATS in its past 19 games as a favorite (9-10 SU).

• Frank Reich is 11-6-2 ATS as a road underdog with five straight covers (4-1 SU).

• Indianapolis fails to cover games by 9.4 points per game, the worst mark in the NFL.

• Since 2019, road teams are 32-21 ATS in Thursday games (27-26 SU). Unders are 30-23 in Thursday games.

• Prime-time unders are 9-4 this season and 98-72-3 since 2019.

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• Over the last 15 seasons, teams favored by at least seven points in international games are 7-0 ATS (6-0 ATS in London).

• Under Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 34-19 ATS, the best mark in the league since 2019. They are 24-16 ATS as favorites but 8-9 ATS as at least seven-point favorites.

• New York is 2-0 outright as an underdog this season (+3.05 units).

• Pittsburgh has not been at least a 14-point underdog since 1969. Pittsburgh is the only team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to never be at least a 14-point underdog. Pittsburgh’s largest underdog role since the merger is +13.5 against Dallas in Super Bowl XXX (which they lost by 10), and its largest underdog role under Mike Tomlin is 12 points in last year’s Wild Card Game against Kansas City.

• Since Mike Tomlin was hired in 2007, Pittsburgh is 44-25-3 ATS as an underdog, the second-best mark in the league in that span. They are 37-35 outright, the only team with a winning record in that span. Tomlin is 11-2 ATS (7-6 SU) as an underdog of at least 3.5 points when Ben Roethlisberger is not his quarterback, and he is 7-1 ATS without Big Ben as a least a six-point underdog.

• Josh Allen is 10-4-2 ATS as at least a seven-point favorite, and he is 6-2-2 ATS as double-digit favorite.

• Last season, first-round quarterbacks making their first career NFL starts went 0-5 ATS.

• This is the largest spread so far this season. The previous high was in Week 2 when Green Bay covered a 10.5-point spread against Chicago.

• Cleveland is 7-12 ATS at home under Kevin Stefanski.

• Kevin Stefanski is 9-19 ATS in conference games.

• Brandon Staley is 1-3 outright and ATS as a road favorite, though he won last week.

• The last four times Jacksonville was a favorite, it lost the game outright, with three of those losses coming against Houston.

• Jacksonville has not been a touchdown favorite since Week 8 of 2019 against the New York Jets (-7), which is also the last time Jacksonville covered as a favorite.

• Houston has won eight straight meetings (6-2 ATS).

• Jacksonville has the highest average cover margin in the NFL (+14.3). That is the best mark by any team through four games since 2019 San Francisco (+15.3).

• Minnesota has failed to cover three straight games.

• Chicago is 4-12 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season. Justin Fields is 3-9 ATS as an underdog.

• Minnesota is 7-13 ATS as a favorite since 2020.

• Minnesota has covered four of the last five meetings.

• Minnesota did not take a bye following its London game last week. Teams are 2-3 outright and ATS without taking a bye following their London games.

• Detroit is 13-6 ATS as an underdog under Dan Campbell (11-2 ATS in past 13 games as underdog).

• Detroit has covered six straight road games, but it is 0-10-1 outright in its past 11 road games (0-9-1 under Dan Campbell).

• Bill Belichick is 60-33-1 ATS after a loss with New England. He is only 12-12 ATS when coming on off at least two straight losses (3-8 ATS without Tom Brady).

• Seattle is 45-27-2 ATS as an underdog under Pete Carroll, including 16-8-1 ATS in the past five seasons.

• Geno Smith is 23-15 ATS in his career, including 10-2 ATS in his last 12 starts and 5-2 ATS with Seattle.

• Dennis Allen is 2-7 ATS in his career as a favorite (0-2 ATS with New Orleans).

• New Orleans did not take a bye following its London game last week. Teams are 2-3 outright and ATS without taking a bye following their London games.

Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 ET

• Miami is 7-1 outright and ATS in the past eight meetings. Miami has covered four straight road meetings and 10 of the past 14 road meetings.

• New York is 1-5 outright and ATS in its past six games following a win (1-4 under Robert Saleh).

• New York is 3-7 ATS as a home underdog under Robert Saleh (1-6 ATS in past seven games).

• Over the past five seasons, Miami is 13-7 ATS as a favorite.

• Over the past five seasons, New York is 6-18 ATS in division games. In that same span, Miami is 17-8-1 ATS against division opponents.

• Teddy Bridgewater is 42-21 ATS in his career (.667). That is the best mark by any quarterbacks with at least 40 starts in the Super Bowl era. He is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite, though he has only been at least a three-point road favorite twice (2-0 ATS).

• Seven of the past eight meetings have gone over the total.

• Atlanta is 0-7 outright and 1-5-1 ATS as at least a seven-point underdog under Arthur Smith.

• Atlanta is 7-3-1 ATS on the road under Arthur Smith.

• Tom Brady is 10-0 outright and 9-1 ATS in his career against Atlanta, including playoffs.

• Over the last three seasons, Tennessee is 8-14 ATS as a favorite.

• Washington has failed to cover three straight games.

• Seventeen of Ryan Tannehill’s 22 road starts with Tennessee have gone over the total.

• Carolina is 3-15 ATS in its past 18 games.

• All four San Francisco games have gone under the total. Seven straight San Francisco games have gone under dating back to last season’s postseason. Carolina’s past three games went under.

• Carolina is 17-5 ATS all-time against San Francisco.

• Cooper Rush is 4-0 outright and ATS in his career. Only five quarterbacks to begin their careers in the Super Bowl era have started 5-0 both outright and ATS (Mike Kruczek, Kurt Warner, Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes and Kyle Allen).

• Since the start of last season, Dallas is 9-1 ATS on the road and 13-2 ATS in conference games.

• Sean McVay is 16-9 ATS after a loss.

• Dallas is 6-1 outright and ATS as an underdog of 3-7 points under Mike McCarthy with six straight wins. Dallas is 5-0 in that spot without Dak Prescott.

• Arizona is 8-2 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season. However, both ATS losses came at home (0-2). Arizona is 20-10-1 ATS overall as an underdog under Kliff Kingsbury.

• Arizona is 19-9 ATS in September/October under Kliff Kingsbury (12-3 ATS in October).

• Philadelphia has covered three straight games.

• Nine straight Cincinnati games have gone under the total dating back to last season, including playoffs.

• Baltimore is 12-2-2 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 since 2019, which was Lamar Jackson’s first full season as starter.

• Cincinnati has covered four straight games as a road underdog.

• Unders are 10-2 in Cincinnati road games since the start of last season including playoffs. Cincinnati is 9-3 ATS in those games.

• Prime-time unders are 9-4 this season and 98-72-3 since 2019.

• Each of the past four meetings have gone over the total.

• Patrick Mahomes is 7-1 outright and 6-2 ATS against Las Vegas.

• Kansas City is 34-21 ATS in division games under Andy Reid.

• Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its past five games as a favorite.

• Prime-time unders are 9-4 this season and 98-72-3 since 2019.

• Over the last 10 seasons, underdogs are 87-69-3 ATS in Monday games, and underdogs of at least seven points are 27-18-1 ATS.

Source: www.espn.com