The sprint to Election Day is here.
With just two months before voters decide which party will control the House and Senate, there’s good news for Democrats on multiple fronts.
Plus, there’s new CNN reporting on Republicans in Washington worried about fundraising, infighting about strategy and concerned about the candidates who have won heavily contested primaries.
But!
For now, the bottom line for 2022 is still that the history and the math are very complicated for Democrats. Republicans could do almost everything wrong and still walk away with a House majority, and maybe a Senate majority to boot.
Here’s the evidence.
Democrats are optimistic
The end of federally guaranteed abortion rights for American women could mobilize voters.
Democrats can point to some key wins in Congress – like a bipartisan infrastructure law that shows they can work across party lines and a climate change package that is a down payment on getting the country off of oil.
A targeted student loan forgiveness plan unveiled by President Joe Biden will help many of the Americans who feel crushed by college debt.
Democrats still plan to push on Capitol Hill for votes to codify abortion rights and same-sex marriage rights into law, although neither may have the support to break a GOP filibuster in the Senate.
The FBI search of Mar-a-Lago and ensuing legal battle between former President Donald Trump and the Department of Justice has been a distraction and a reminder of the chaos of the Trump years.
Plus, Republican party dons are frustrated with GOP candidates in some key Senate races.
But the bad news for Democrats persists too
Chiefly, inflation continues to make American life much more expensive, and there’s little Biden or Democratic majorities in the House and Senate can do about it.
Gas prices, a key barometer, have fallen but are still about $1.50 per gallon higher than they were when Biden took office.
Plus, the Federal Reserve’s cure for inflation – higher interest rates – will likely lead to a higher unemployment rate, which won’t necessarily make regular people feel better about the economy, even if it causes economists to breathe a sigh of relief.
The student loan debt cancellation has caused some frustration about a moral hazard since even some doctors and lawyers will see some of their debt forgiven. It’s also caused anger among those who already paid off their debts or went to work rather than to college.
And a flood of migrants at the border could motivate Republican voters as criticism of the Biden administration mounts.
Keep reading here.
Source: www.cnn.com