With inflation near a 40-year high, Social Security could get a historic boost next year to help seniors keep up. The most recent estimate for a 2023 cost of living adjustment is 9.6%, says Mary Johnson, Social Security and Medicare policy analyst for senior advocacy group the Senior Citizens League.
July’s Consumer Price Index report showed inflation up 8.5% over the last 12 months, making it more difficult for people living on fixed incomes, like those from Social Security benefits, to make ends meet.
The 2023 COLA will be based on third-quarter data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. Johnson says the announcement is expected around Oct. 13, after the release of the September CPI report.
If inflation “runs hot” or higher than average, Johnson predicts the COLA could run up to 10.1% for 2023. Should it run lower than the recent figures, she says 9.3% might be more likely.
An adjustment of 9.6% would increase the average monthly Social Security retirement benefit of $1,656 by $158.98, says Johnson.
The prior COLA came in at 5.9%, and 9.6% this year would be enormous in terms of COLA rates in the recent past.
The CPI-W is the benchmark upon which monthly Social Security benefits increases are determined, but the Senior Citizens League has long advocated that the index is not representative of the way seniors live.
One often-cited gripe with the CPI-W is the weight it gives to things like gasoline — something urban wage and clerical workers might need to commute to work every day more so than retired seniors. The SCL says this figure underestimates the inflation experienced by Social Security recipients, since it does not give enough weight to expenses senior citizens have, such as healthcare or housing.
The league calls for the use of R-CPI-E, or the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, in place of the CPI-W. The R-CPI-E is based specifically on the spending patterns of the elderly. The group estimates that a senior who filed for Social Security with an average level of benefits over 30 years ago would have received about $14,000 more in retirement, had the R-CPI-E been used to calculate benefits.
— Georgina Tzanetos / Bankrate.com
Source: www.mercurynews.com