After the driest January and February in the Bay Area’s recorded history came and went, March is expected to end on a wet note, with the biggest storm since the new year expected to drench the region Sunday.
A low-pressure system is moving from the eastern Pacific towards California and is expected to make it way along the Central Coast Sunday night into Monday, with the front moving onshore by Monday morning, according to the National Weather Service. Lower elevations in the San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay region could get between a quarter to a half an inch of rain along the coastal hills, while the wettest spots, including the Santa Cruz Mountains and mountains along Central Coast including Big Sur, could receive between one to two inches.
“I’d rate it a moderate strength system,” said forecaster Ryan Walbrun. “Amounts are not copious and not extreme by any stretch of the measure, but we should get some beneficial rain.”
Wet weather makes its return late Sunday into Monday. In fact most of us should get a decent (and much needed!) soaking. Have that umbrella handy and prepare for slick roadways for your Monday morning commute. #cawx pic.twitter.com/yMy6lbxRZe
— NWS Bay Area 🌉 (@NWSBayArea) March 25, 2022
There’s also the potential for rainfall on the Colorado and Dolan fire burn scars but precipitation amounts will depend on how the storm develops and if the showers are heavy enough to reach debris flow thresholds. The weather service advised residents to be wary of slick roadways and a slower Monday morning commute. There’s also a slight chance for thunder Monday afternoon and night.
Temperatures are expected to range in the lower to mid 80s Friday and Saturday for the valleys and in the upper 50s and around 60 along the coastline. A ridge could rebuild early in the week, resulting in surface high pressure, dry conditions and higher temperatures through the middle to the end of next week.
As promising as the soaking could be, the storm isn’t expected to do much to affect California’s long-term drought, which is entering its third year in a row.
Atmospheric river storms in October and December raised hopes of easing the drought, but January and February were the driest on record dating back to 1921. The statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack, which fulfills about 30% of the state’s water needs, was at 168% of normal on New Year’s Day but had dwindled to 46% as of Friday, according to the California Department of Water Resources.
The U.S. Drought Monitor also reported Thursday that about 94% of California is in “severe drought,” an increase from 87% from two weeks ago, while about 38% of the state is in “extreme drought,” the most dire stage, up from 13%. Extreme drought has spread to the North Coast and all nine Bay Area counties are currently in a severe drought.
The dry spell and recent high temperatures have also ignited fires across the state during what would normally be the wettest time of the year. Fuels and vegetation have also dried out and would require storms with higher rainfall totals to fill them up again.
“The biggest tangible impact to get a system like this at the end of the month is it will buy us a little bit of time before peak wildfire season,” said Walbrun. “We got plenty of precipitation in October and December that allowed there to be plenty of grass and brush cop. The dry January and February didn’t signal a good sign. Unless things get unusually wet during April and May, the current trends would indicate another busy fire season projecting out into the summer.”
Source: www.mercurynews.com