The Pac-12’s last best chance to secure a fourth NCAA Tournament berth comes this weekend, when two March Madness locks collide with a bubble team on the court in Eugene.
Arizona, UCLA and USC are safely in the tournament. But Oregon needs at least one victory over the Los Angeles schools, and perhaps two, to feel more comfortable about its prospects for Selection Sunday.
The Ducks won twice in Southern California a month ago. A second sweep of the No. 13 Bruins and No. 24 Trojans — those are NET rankings, not AP top-25 placements — would give the Ducks a resume boost many fellow bubble-sitters could not match.
Remember, the 36 at-large teams aren’t selected in a vacuum. They’re continually evaluated against each other in groups of two, four or six teams at a time until the field is selected. Anything that differentiates one team resonates with the committee.
Even a split this weekend could provide Oregon with an edge in the inevitable resume showdowns against other at-large hopefuls.
To the Hotline’s latest NCAA projections …
— For those unfamiliar with the NET rankings system, which plays an important role in the NCAA Tournament selection process: The result of each game played falls within one of four quadrants, based on the NET ranking of the opponent and location of the game.
(The categorization changes over time as teams move up and down the NET.)
Quadrant 1: Home vs. Nos. 1-30, Neutral vs. Nos. 1-50, Away vs. Nos. 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Listed in order of NET ranking (through Wednesday) …
Arizona
NET Ranking: No. 2
Record vs. Quad I and II: 11-2
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 13-0
NCAA projection: No. 1 seed
Comment: We wrote about this last week, but it’s worth mentioning again: For the Wildcats (14-1) to claim the best season in the Pac-10/12 era, they must reach 18 wins before losing their second. That’s the only way to account for the two additional games on the schedule.
UCLA
NET Ranking: No. 13
Record vs. Quad I and II: 8-5
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 12-0
NCAA projection: No. 4 seed
Comment: To feel reasonably comfortable about a top-four seed, the Bruins probably need to beat either Oregon or USC, handle their business against Oregon State and Washington, and reach the finals of the Pac-12 tournament.
USC
NET Ranking: No. 24
Record vs. Quad I and II: 8-3
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 15-1
NCAA projection: No. 7 seed
Comment: Our outlook for the Trojans is a tad darker than most NCAA bracket projections. We think the losses to Stanford will leave a worse taste with the selection committee than the computer algorithms.
Washington State
NET Ranking: No. 49
Record vs. Quad I and II: 3-8
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 12-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: The Cougars (15-12/8-8) have four games left and three are against OSU and Washington. If they don’t finish over .500 in league play — for the first time since 2008, no less — it will be a major disappointment.
Oregon
NET Ranking: No. 67
Record vs. Quad I and II: 6-7
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 10-3
NCAA projection: No. 12 seed
Comment: The College Football Playoff selection committee typically cares more about quality wins than subpar losses. The Ducks need the basketball version to take that approach.
Colorado
NET Ranking: No. 81
Record vs. Quad I and II: 4-8
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 14-1
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Too little, too late for the Buffaloes, who have a five-game winning streak but no chance to climb into the at-large pool. They must win the conference tournament.
Stanford
NET Ranking: No. 105
Record vs. Quad I and II: 5-10
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 10-2
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: First team to 50 wins Saturday evening in Berkeley, and the Hotline has never been more serious about anything, ever.
Arizona State
NET Ranking: No. 118
Record vs. Quad I and II: 5-13
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 5-3
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Marreon Jackson’s production over the past three weeks (15 points per game) reflects the expectations we had for his entire season. The slow start was a greater surprise than the strong finish.
Utah
NET Ranking: No. 122
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-13
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 9-3
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: The Utes could very well enter the Pac-12 tournament as one of the hottest teams in the conference, a designation for which there isn’t overwhelming competition.
Washington
NET Ranking: No. 132
Record vs. Quad I and II: 2-9
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 11-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: Predictably, UW’s loss total has climbed as the schedule turned rugged. But we believe coach Mike Hopkins has enough wins in the bank (13 total, eight in conference) to ride out the downturn.
Cal
NET Ranking: No. 139
Record vs. Quad I and II: 3-13
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 8-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: The Bears have reached the 75-point mark three times this season: against San Diego, Southern Utah and … Oregon.
Oregon State
NET Ranking: No. 252
Record vs. Quad I and II: 0-13
Record vs. Quad III and IV: 3-9
NCAA projection: no bid
Comment: More than 100 spots below the nearest Pac-12 team. We haven’t checked, but that feels like a record differential for this point in the season.
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