Ville Husso was really the impetus for the re-projecting of fantasy goaltenders I wanted to do this week. His projections in my fantasy points tracker had him ranked 15th among goalies for projected remaining points, but the calculations I use are based on current crease share, not projected. Projected would be better, yes, but that takes a manual eye and I built the spreadsheet with all NHL stats twice a week … so, long story short, I’m not manually projected future crease share twice a week.
But I know – especially after Thursday’s latest Jordan Binnington drubbing – that Husso is going to be leaned on a lot more than his current 31.6 percent crease share for the season. I briefly considered a new formula to project go-forward crease share based on how it has grown as the season progresses, but too many injuries and other factors with goaltenders led me to do new manual projections, the same way I would do in the offseason.
So I did it for Husso and all the other goaltenders to see how it might impact their fantasy projections from here on out.
But crease share is just one part of the formula for projections. The other part is how they use their crease share – or, fantasy points per 60 minutes (FPP60). And, admittedly, goaltenders like Husso and some others I’ll discuss below probably have an elevated FPP60 because they haven’t put in enough minutes to have those unpredictable rough outings that can torpedo stats.
Without further ado, here’s the list with their projected remaining fantasy points and current FPP60.
Ville Husso, G, St. Louis Blues: 129.32 remaining points, 5.30 FPP60
Jacob Markstrom, G, Calgary Flames: 126.49, 4.16
Igor Shesterkin, G, New York Rangers: 124.29, 5.55
Ilya Sorokin, G, New York Islanders: 118.39, 3.76
Frederik Andersen, G, Carolina Hurricanes: 115.53, 4.73
Juuse Saros, G, Nashville Predators: 109.14, 3.90
Tristan Jarry, G, Pittsburgh Penguins: 101.01, 3.96
Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Tampa Bay Lightning: 99.84, 3.80
Jack Campbell, G, Toronto Maple Leafs: 99.79, 3.98
Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Florida Panthers: 90.61, 3.92
Pavel Francouz, G, Colorado Avalanche: 86.21, 5.82
Cam Talbot, G, Minnesota Wild: 84.01, 3.18
Darcy Kuemper, G, Colorado Avalanche: 79.12, 3.56
John Gibson, G, Anaheim Ducks: 78.18, 3.07
Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets: 73.75, 2.36
Thatcher Demko, G, Vancouver Canucks: 72.57, 2.85
Matt Murray, G, Ottawa Senators: 62.95, 2.45
Jake Oettinger, G, Dallas Stars: 56.59, 2.98
Robin Lehner, G, Vegas Golden Knights: 53.48, 2.25
Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Chicago Blackhawks: 53.12, 2.30
As you can see, that got out of hand fast. For the record, this result is what happens when Husso gets only a 66 percent crease share. But I don’t think we can assume his unreal FPP60 would remain so stellar if he started playing two-thirds instead of one-third of the Blues games. Realistically, I think he’s just inside the top 10 the rest of the way, ahead of Bobrovsky but behind Campbell.
Some other notes, in case you disagree with the projections: I gave Shesterkin 64 percent of the remaining crease share as the Rangers seem keen to rest him lots, but he could play more than that and easily top this list. … Sorokin at 75 percent might be a bit optimistic, but based on results, that’s how often the Isles should be playing him. … Like Husso, I don’t think Francouz’s FPP60 would stand up to more playing time, so I would not actually expect him to top Kuemper in fantasy points – but it’s way closer than you might think it will be. … Murray making this list is based on a 66 percent crease share going forward, which he might not quite get. But he and Oettinger (50 percent crease share projection) are both going to be great spot-start candidates. … The biggest wild card here is Fleury, as not only does a trade likely increase his 66 percent crease share projection, but it probably also spikes his FPP60. He’s just inside the top 10 with a trade to a winning contender.
Fantasy Forecaster: Feb. 14 to Feb. 20
Quite a few NHL games for a week in which none were originally scheduled. As the league continues to make up for the time lost to COVID, we still have some nasty imbalances in the schedule. On one hand, the Edmonton Oilers have a five-game week on tap; on the other hand, the Seattle Kraken, New Jersey Devils and Arizona Coyotes all play only once.
Team notes
Edmonton Oilers: If the fantasy hockey community was allowed to choose when the Oilers would fire coach Dave Tippett, this is probably the week we would have picked. A new coach has a good chance to spark the offense and perhaps bring fantasy production back for some slumping players. Who needs to be picked up? Well, the answer isn’t flashy here, as its arguably the same players as it would have been without a coaching change. Evander Kane remains available in some leagues (35 percent) and Evan Bouchard (48 percent) was making strides to take over the power play on defense. What we should be watching for next week is how new coach Jay Woodcroft deploys his top two lines and his top power play. We know Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Kane and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are locks, but there is some flexibility for the final two wingers and last member of the power play. What combination does Woodcroft use from Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and Zach Hyman? Does he consider dipping into the player pool he knows from coaching the AHL’s Bakersfield Condors and call up Seth Griffith or Cooper Marody? And what about the blue line? Is it Tyson Barrie, Darnell Nurse or Bouchard as the power-play quarterback? Keep a close eye on things during this five-game showcase.
Montreal Canadiens: Martin St. Louis‘ coaching debut saw fairly balanced lineup. He stacked the power play with the best offensive forwards (Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Mike Hoffman and Tyler Toffoli), but sprinkled them on three different lines at even strength — and it was the other line with none of them (Jake Evans, Josh Anderson and Rem Pitlick) that played the most shifts! There isn’t any kind of data we can point to when trying to guess what St. Louis will do here (he was last coaching peewee hockey), but he feels like the right kind of person at the right time for this team. The Habs only play twice this coming week, so we’ll have a slow-forming picture of whether he can turn the Canadiens around. But I don’t hate the idea of checking on Suzuki’s availability in shallow leagues, and Caufield’s availability in deeper ones.
Calgary Flames: The Flames are projected to crush in their three games next week against the Blue Jackets, Ducks and Kraken. Pick up Chris Tanev for the week, as he’s averaged 2.2 fantasy points per game for the past month, and Blake Coleman should be in lineups, too.
Minnesota Wild: The Wild also have a positive offensive projection for a four-game week on the forecaster. This might be your last chance to grab Matt Boldy, who continues to make an impressive run in tandem with Kevin Fiala and thanks to a role on the power play. I’d even go so far as to suggest that if you are in a shallow league, I might even swap out a player like Ryan Hartman for Boldy on a go-forward basis. While Hartman still plays on the top line, he hasn’t been on the top power-play unit of late — but Boldy has been.
Player notes
Dylan Strome, C/W, Chicago Blackhawks: It feels like a long time since Strome had a breakout 2018-19 and we thought we had a fantasy mainstay to play with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat. But, out of seemingly nowhere, Strome has been playing some of his best hockey since that season over the past month. A lot of the production has come on the power play with — you guessed it — Kane and DeBrincat, but he hasn’t been playing a ton with both at even strength. Strome has mostly lined up with Kane and the two have had most of their success with Brandon Hagel as the third member of the line.
Brayden Schenn, C, St. Louis Blues: After an excruciatingly slow start to the season, Schenn is popping off lately. Despite his inherent name value as a fantasy asset, his play prior to January was bad enough that Schenn is actually available in one-third of ESPN leagues.
Source: www.espn.com