Bettors and bookmakers spent Wednesday morning attempting to quantify the difference between Green Bay Packers starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers and backup Jordan Love.
After some initial disagreement, the betting market eventually landed on seven points.
Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19, a source confirmed to ESPN, and will miss Sunday’s game against Kansas City. The point spread was sitting at pick ’em Wednesday morning, before the news broke and betting was briefly halted on the game.
The Chiefs reopened as high as 8.5 point favorites, before the line settled back at Kansas City -7.
“Aaron Rodgers is worth a touchdown at least,” Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said. “With star quarterbacks like Rodgers and Tom Brady, a touchdown is a good place to start, and this is telling you the same thing.”
The point spread had already seen significant movement this week, and the early money had been lopsided on the Packers. Multiple sportsbooks reported more than 90% of the money that had been wagered on the game prior to Wednesday’s news was on Green Bay. Those Packers bets are now relying on Love, who will be making his first career NFL start.
“It’s tough because we don’t really know what Jordan Love is,” bookmaker Chris Bennett, who oversees NFL odds for sportsbook Circa Sports, said Wednesday morning. “He hasn’t really established that he’s bad, because he’s had no experience in meaningful regular-season action for the Packers. But I’m not going to fight the market. If the market thinks he’s worth seven … that seems reasonable to me.”
Multiple bookmakers told ESPN that they did not see any indication that the news hit the betting market in advance, and the line had held mostly steady at pick ’em since Tuesday. But some bettors did react to the adjusted line Wednesday.
“We went to [Kansas City] -7.5 and had a sharp customer at the SuperBook in Colorado take the points, so we moved back down to seven,” John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook, said.
Bennett of Circa Sports also reported taking a big bet on the Packers +7.5. However, at BetRivers sportsbooks, the action on the adjusted line on Wednesday afternoon was heavy on the Chiefs.
“I expect the line to stay around where it is now. Any uncertainty or instability, the public is going to bet against that,” Pullen of Caesars Sportsbook said. “That’s tempered a little by the fact that the Chiefs have not looked great. But this is a first-time starter going against a team whose recent history shows they’ve been a great team. I expect the public to be on the Chiefs.”
The over/under total on the game dropped from 55.5 to 48.5 on the Rodgers news.
Source: www.espn.com