GLENDALE, Ariz. – Flashbacks of last season’s relocation will hit many 49ers upon Sunday’s return to State Farm Stadium.
It was their home away from home, and not an all too happy home at that, once Santa Clara County’s COVID precautions forced the 49ers’ late-season encampment.
“We got real familiar with the stadium,” left tackle Trent Williams said. “It’ll probably be a few thousand screaming fans in there this time, so maybe a little different” than last year’s games when the public wasn’t allowed entry.
Turns out, playing at Levi’s Stadium before home fans didn’t bring joy the past two Sundays, either. The 49ers, after a 2-0 road start, lost to Green Bay and Seattle ahead of today’s potential upset of the undefeated Arizona Cardinals.
Despite all of the 49ers’ travails last season – they went 0-for-3 in Arizona as a “home” venue – their final win helped bounce the host Cardinals from playoff contention, so maybe those memories can yield an inspirational encore this trip.
More juice could come from Trey Lance, who’ll be making his starting debut (and first trip to Arizona) in place of an injured Jimmy Garoppolo.
Lance’s counterpart, Kyler Murray, is in charge of the NFL’s last undefeated team, and here are five ways the 49ers can rattle the NFC West race with a win:
1. MITIGATE MURRAY
Murray wears No. 1, he was the 2019 No. 1 overall pick, and he ranks No. 1 in the NFL with a 76.1 completion percentage.
But also consider these numbers: His 66.0 passer rating in last December’s loss to the 49ers was his worst of the season and it’s his second-worst in 36 career starts (17-18-1). The 49ers limited him to 31-of-50 passing for 247 yards, though he did scoot by for 75 yards on eight carries.
Film from that effort should bolster the 49ers’ defensive confidence, following humbling losses the past two Sundays against Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers and Seattle’s Russell Wilson.
Linebacker Fred Warner downplayed last season’s work: “It wasn’t that we ‘figured him out’ and schemed him up,” Warner said. “To be successful against a guy like this, everyone has to do their job. If one guy is out of their assignment, boom, that’s when explosive plays happen.”
Someone’s assignment should be to constantly spy Murray and be ready to go after him if/when he breaches the line of scrimmage.
2. LANCE’S DEBUT
With Lance making his starting debut, the 49ers must use all his powers, to fight Murray’s fire with fire.
Shanahan, as coveted as his game plan may be, is embracing the idea of off-schedule (improvised) plays that include scrambles. But when?
Shanahan’s response: “You never tell a guy, ‘Hey, No. 1 (option) is not open, so stop and you run.’ If someone isn’t capable of doing all that, you do eventually tell them that. But that’s pretty easy to stop.
“There’s a feel to that.”
Lance has that feel. He ran for 41 yards (seven carries) last Sunday, after scoring on a 1-yard run against the Packers the prior week. In college, he ran for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns to lead North Dakota State’s 2019 team to the Football Championship Subdivision national title.
Remember when Colin Kaepernick made his starting debut in November 2012 against the Chicago Bears, who were 7-2 entering that Monday night showcase? Everyone, including Steve Young, figured Kaepernick wouldn’t air it out and instead rely on his rushing prowess. Kaepernick passed for 243 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing just four times for 10 yards in a 32-7 win.
Keep that in mind if the 49ers opt to let Lance’s arm loose, against a Cardinals defense missing injured cornerback Byron Murphy, who has three interceptions this season.
Not even Shanahan is sure what to expect, stating: “That’s how I feel every week, though, even with quarterbacks who’ve played a thousand games before. You have quarterbacks who are great throwers and all of a sudden one day they struggle. So that’s how the league is every single Sunday. I’m excited to see him play.”
3. TURNOVER TIME
The 49ers’ defense has forced only one turnover, and it even cost them Dre Greenlaw, who tore a groin muscle on his season-opening pick-six.
The Cardinals have generated nine turnovers, including four interceptions and five fumble recoveries (on a NFL-high eight forced fumbles).
“It’s cliché, everyone knows, but the No. 1 stat besides points is turnovers,” Shanahan said. “And Arizona’s playing great all-around football in all three phases, but their defense having nine turnovers is huge and that makes them tough to beat.”
Lance had only one interception in 318 collegiate passes, and none in last Sunday’s 9-of-18 effort (which started 2-of-7 with too many erratic throws).
Arizona has yet to lose a fumble this season. The 49ers have yet to recover one, and they are preparing to do more than just end that streak; all defenders took part in a scoop-and-score drill before Wednesday’s practice.
4. RUN AND HOLD BALL
The 49ers’ rushing attack showed signs of rebirth last Sunday, and it’ll be especially needed this game to take control and keep the ball from the Cardinals’ clutches.
It’s not as if the 49ers want to pass all game with Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt blasting off the edge, not when left tackle Trent Williams is battling a shoulder sprain.
So the 49ers must run it, and they could welcome back Elijah Mitchell as the starter after a two-game absence. They also can hope Trey Sermon continues his weekly improvement. Don’t forget about Lance’s legs and those of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk or George Kittle on more motion-based snaps.
Lance likes the “one-two punch” of fellow rookies Mitchell and Sermon, the latter of whom has more experience in the zone-read scheme and has impressed Lance with his vision. The Cardinals’ run defense ranks a lowly 26th (135.8 yards per game).
Kittle, by the way, has a blossoming rivalry with Cardinals’ safety Budda Baker, so keep an eye on that (and hope Kittle avoids an injury for the first time in a few years against him).
5. SECONDARY CONFIDENCE
No, Stephon Gilmore isn’t rescuing their cornerback corps, nor is there a sense of dismay in that from the 49ers’ embattled crew. Instead, Emmanuel Moseley is coming off a really impressive outing, and Josh Norman looks ready to return from his Week 3 chest contusion.
At nickel back, K’Waun Williams (calf) remains out, so look for Murray to test his replacement in the slot, which last week was Dontae Johnson but could be rookie Deommodore Lenoir.
Dre Kirkpatrick is coming off his 49ers’ debut, and considering he was on the Cardinals last season, he’s experienced with the dangerous likes of Deandre Hopkins and Christian Kirk, not to mention A.J. Green, his former teammate in Cincinnati.
Those three receivers all have at least 15 catches, 225 yards and two touchdowns. Hopkins is the most dangerous, however, and it took a breakout game by Jason Verrett last season to slow him in the December meeting.
Verrett, despite a season-ending knee injury in Week 1, is still around the 49ers, and the best piece of his advice in covering Hopkins or anyone is to play with fierce confidence like he did.
“Oh, for sure,” defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans said. “That’s any corner, any safety, any DB when you’re matched up out there on some of the best athletes in the world. It’s all about confidence.
“… Our corners, our safeties have to have that mindset and they will have it this week.”