With a week of NFL action in the books, let’s go around the league to spot the relevant betting trends so far.
Underdogs went 12-4 ATS in Week 1, the most covers by underdogs in a Week 1 during the Super Bowl era. Green Bay was blown out by New Orleans in Week 1, but good news for Green Bay bettors in Week 2: Since the start of the 2019 season, Green Bay is 6-0 ATS following a SU loss. Green Bay is a 10.5-point favorite in Week 2, when it hosts Detroit on Monday Night Football.
Teddy Bridgewater is 35-13 ATS as a starter in the NFL, including 13-7 ATS as a favorite and 4-1 ATS as a road favorite. Bridgewater and Denver are 6-point favorites in Jacksonville this week. This will be just the fourth time that Cleveland has been a double-digit favorite since 2000. Cleveland is 2-1 ATS in that spot. Week 2 has three different teams favored by double digits (Tampa Bay, Green Bay and Cleveland). That’s the most teams favored by double digits in a Week 2 since 2006 (five were favored by double digits).
Overall NFL Trends
-
Underdogs: 12-4 ATS
-
Road teams: 9-7 ATS
-
Unders: 9-7
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3.5), Thursday, 8:20 ET
New York is 5-12 ATS in September since 2017 and 9-19-1 ATS since 2013.
New York is 16-4 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the 2018 season and 18-6 ATS on the road over that same span.
New York is 3-0 ATS in games with fewer than six days of rest under Joe Judge.
New York is 5-1 ATS against the NFC East under Joe Judge.
Washington is 3-5-1 ATS following a straight-up loss under Ron Rivera.
New York is 13-3-1 to the under since the start of last season, the highest under percentage in the NFL.
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-3), Sunday, 1 ET
Chicago is 4-11 ATS following a straight-up loss over the past three seasons.
Chicago has failed to cover each of its past three games as a home favorite. It is also 2-8 ATS over its past 10 as a favorite.
Cincinnati has won just one of its last 16 road games straight up (1-14-1 SU, 8-8 ATS) since the start of the 2019 season.
Andy Dalton has failed to cover every time as a home favorite since the 2018 season (0-4 ATS over span).
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-12.5), Sunday, 1 ET
Tyrod Taylor has covered his last six starts including the playoffs, and he is 5-0 ATS since leaving the Bills after the 2017 season.
Houston is 6-0 ATS vs Cleveland since the start of the 2006 season. Houston has also covered each of its past three games as an underdog.
This is the third time that Baker Mayfield has been a double-digit favorite in his career, 1-1 ATS in that spot.
This will be the fourth time that the Browns have been double-digit favorites since 2000. That’s the second-fewest such games in the NFL over that span (Lions, 3). Cleveland is 2-1 ATS in that spot.
Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, 1 ET
Los Angeles is 10-4-1 ATS in games in September since Sean McVay became head coach in 2017.
Sean McVay is 38-26-2 ATS in his career (regular season).
Indianapolis is 0-4 ATS as a home underdog under Frank Reich.
The under is 25-16 in Carson Wentz starts since 2018 including the playoffs, and the under has hit in seven straight games.
Carson Wentz is 7-4 ATS has a home underdog in his career (0-1 with Indianapolis).
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 1 ET
Buffalo games have gone 13-6-1 to the over since the start of last season (0-1 this season).
Miami is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog with five straight covers. Tua Tagovailoa is 4-0 ATS as an underdog.
Miami is 12-5 ATS since the start of last season, the best cover percentage in the NFL over that span.
Miami has covered five of its last six games against AFC East opponents.
Josh Allen is 11-4-1 ATS on the road in his career.
Each of the last four matchups between these teams has gone over the total.
New England Patriots (-5.5) at New York Jets, Sunday, 1 ET
New England is 16-2 SU over its last 18 games (7-11 ATS) against New York over the past ten seasons.
The under is 27-13 in New England road games since the start of the 2016 season.
New England has failed to cover in five of its last six games as a favorite.
New York has covered four of its last five games as a home underdog.
New York has failed to cover a game in September since 2019 (0-4 ATS in 2020).
New York is 6-11 ATS since the start of last season, tied for the worst cover percentage in the NFL.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 1 ET
Kyle Shanahan is 7-17-2 ATS as a favorite in the regular season, including 1-8-1 ATS (6-4 outright) as a favorite of at least seven points.
Philadelphia has covered each of its last five games as a home underdog.
Philadelphia is 3-9 ATS in September since the start of the 2018 season.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 6-10-2 ATS as a favorite since becoming the 49ers’ starter.
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6), Sunday, 1 ET
Las Vegas has covered each of its last four games against Pittsburgh. Las Vegas has also covered each of its last three as a road underdog.
Las Vegas is 0-3 ATS in its last three road games, while Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a favorite.
Ben Roethlisberger is 32-23-2 ATS in his career as a home favorite of six or more points.
Derek Carr is 3-6 ATS as a road underdog of six or more points since the start of the 2018 season.
Las Vegas is 14-3 to the over since the start of last season, the highest over percentage in the NFL.
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 ET
Since the start of the 2018 season, New Orleans is 11-3 ATS when the line falls between -3 and +3. Over that same time, New Orleans is 18-6 ATS on the road.
New Orleans is 16-6 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2016 season.
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS against NFC South opponents since the start of last season.
The over is 10-3 in the last 13 games between these teams.
Carolina is 8-2 ATS over its past ten games as an underdog.
Denver Broncos (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 1 ET
Denver was the only team in the NFL last season to be an underdog in every game. It will now been favored in its first two games this season.
Jacksonville has covered five of its last six games vs. Denver since the start of the 2007 season.
Since the start of the 2017 season, Denver is 7-14-2 ATS as a favorite.
Teddy Bridgewater is 35-13 ATS as a starter in the NFL, including 13-7 ATS as a favorite and 4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-4), Sunday at 4:05 ET
Minnesota has covered each of its five games against the Cardinals since the start of the 2011 season.
The over is 8-1 in Minnesota games that follow a loss since the start of last season.
Kirk Cousins is 5-9-1 ATS as a road underdog since becoming the Vikings’ starting QB.
Kyler Murray is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite in his career.
Minnesota is 6-11 ATS since the start of last season, tied for the worst cover percentage in the NFL.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13), Sunday, 4:05 ET
Tom Brady is 201-137-7 ATS in his career including the playoffs (.596).
Tom Brady is 35-31 ATS in his career as a double-digit favorite.
Bruce Arians is 0-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite in his coaching career.
Tampa Bay covered seven of its last ten games dating back to last season, including the playoffs.
Atlanta has covered seven of its last eight games as a double-digit underdog.
All six of the meetings between these teams since the start of the 2018 season have gone over the total.
Tom Brady is 5-1 ATS in his last six meetings with Matt Ryan.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (-3), Sunday, 4:25 ET
Dak Prescott has gone 1-5 ATS as a starter since the start of last season. Five of his six starts went over the total, including the last five.
Dak Prescott is 14-8-1 ATS as a road underdog in his career.
Los Angeles has covered each of its last three meetings with Dallas.
Los Angeles is 5-14-1 ATS as a home favorite since the start of the 2018 season.
Dallas is 6-11 ATS since the start of last season, tied for the worst cover percentage in the NFL.
Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5), Sunday, 4:25 ET
Tennessee has gone 12-4-1 to the over since the start of last season. The over is 21-5-1 in the regular season in Ryan Tannehill starts since he joined the team.
Since the start of the 2016 season, Tennessee is 20-10-2 ATS following a SU loss.
The over is 10-2 in Tennessee’s last 12 road games.
Seattle has covered five consecutive September games.
Russell Wilson is 38-29-2 ATS as a home favorite in his career.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, 8:20 ET
Lamar Jackson is 6-3 outright and ATS in primetime games in the regular season.
Since the start of the 2018 season, Baltimore is 9-1 ATS as an underdog.
Since the start of the 2019 season, Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS when the line falls between -3 and +3.
Kansas City has gone 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games dating back to last season (including playoffs).
Kansas City is 19-9 ATS in September under Andy Reid (11-3 ATS since 2017 and 8-3 ATS with Patrick Mahomes starting).
Patrick Mahomes is 16-8-1 ATS on the road in his career.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-10.5), Monday, 8:15 ET on ESPN
Green Bay is 6-2 outright and ATS in September under Matt LaFleur, including 3-0 last season (0-1 this season).
Aaron Rodgers is 43-25-2 ATS at home over the last ten seasons. In his career, he is 62-38-2 ATS at home.
Since the start of the 2019 season, Green Bay is 6-0 ATS following a SU loss.
Detroit has covered seven of its last eight meetings with Green Bay.
Jared Goff is 0-2 ATS in his career as a double-digit road underdog.