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ESPN staff
The Jacksonville Jaguars now have the best chance to pick No. 1 overall in the 2022 NFL draft, according to the updated 1-32 draft order projections from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). Urban Meyer’s Jags were blown out in Week 1 at the Houston Texans, which was the preseason favorite to get the first pick. The Texans are now projected to pick No. 5 overall.
There have already been five trades involving first-round picks in the 2022 draft, with the New York Giants projected to have two top-10 picks. The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to have three first-round picks, thanks to deals with the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts, the latter of which involves a conditional pick based on quarterback Carson Wentz‘s playing time, which is likely to happen after Wentz recovered from his preseason foot injury and played in Week 1.
Each week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games, and the order is based on each team’s average draft position in the simulations. “Stats to know” are courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.
Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2022 NFL draft (updated Sept. 14):
Average draft position: 6.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 17.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 57%
Average draft position: 7.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 15.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 53.8%
Average draft position: 7.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 12.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 48.6%
Average draft position: 8.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 9.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 41.7%
Average draft position: 9.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 8.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 40.2%
Average draft position: 9.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 31.1%
Average draft position: 10.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 6.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 32.6%
Average draft position: 10.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 31.6%
Average draft position: 12.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 22.2%
Average draft position: 13.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 15.9%
Average draft position: 13.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 20.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 44.3%
Average draft position: 14.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 31%
Average draft position: 14.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 16.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 38.4%
Average draft position: 14.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 9.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 29%
Average draft position: 15.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 13.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 34.3%
Average draft position: 16.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 13%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 31.1%
Average draft position: 17.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 6.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 21.5%
Average draft position: 18.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 4.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 15.7%
Average draft position: 19.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14.2%
Average draft position: 19.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 5.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 18.6%
Average draft position: 19.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 12.9%
Average draft position: 20.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10.4%
Average draft position: 20.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.8%
Average draft position: 21.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10.1%
Average draft position: 21.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.3%
Average draft position: 21.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 9.5%
Average draft position: 21.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 7.5%
Average draft position: 22.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.8%
Average draft position: 23.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.5%
Average draft position: 24.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.8%
Average draft position: 24.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.1%
Average draft position: 27.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.8%